WINTER 2009-2010 Forecast

3rd update issued October 16th

Hello everyone and welcome to the much anticipated Snow-Day.org Winter
Forecast for2009-2010. Since our 1st winter forecast update on
September 1st, I have reviewed over more information and we have came
up with a VERY STORMY COLD Winter for much of the country. Below I
will explain each map that i have created. The recent storm tracks and
where the cold has set up across the country has not exhibited a El
Nino forecast. Thus, El Nino will be a minor factor.

As you can see above, the temperatures for Winter 2009-2010 will be
very brutal. Please notice the pink shading up in the Upper Midwest
and Northern Plains. That is the area that will experience cold
temperatures, the coldest in the entire country will lie there.  Below
average temperatures will exist over much of the Central and Southern
Plains, and even stretching as far northwest as the Pacific Northwest.
As far east and south to the Gulf Coast states and the east great
lakes and portions of the East Coast. Please notice that average
temperatures will exist over the deep south, portions of the desert
southwest and the Mid Atlantic States. The pattern over the last few
weeks has displayed this pattern of persistent strong troughs of low
pressure forming over the Pacific Northwest, and diving southeast and
growing with time as they make it to the center of the country and
weakening as they head through the Northeast USA and breaking up and
passing northwest of most of the East Coast. Record breaking and
brutal cold will be likely over portions of the Northern Plains so
please bundle up and stay tuned for more forecast!

The storminess will be the real story for this winter. The overall
pattern for September through mid October has exhibited a storm track
that would cut through the Pacific Northwest, dive southward and re
form in the Desert Southwest, then ride northeast through the southern
plains, then onward through Missouri and the lower Great Lakes. The
other storm track has formed in the desert southwest as well, but
continues the straight eastward track through the ohio valley, then
shoots northeastward through the Mid Atlantic States. Another possible
storm track will be a few nor easters this winter, this by far will
not be the major storm track as the predominate storm track has set up
through the Ohio Valley through the Lower Great Lakes and the Desert
Southwest and Central Plains. Thus, a wide area of above average
precipitation will exist over the Pacific Northwest states along the
West Coast then through much of the Desert Southwest then onward from
I-80 south in Nebraska and Iowa. This would continue through the lower
Great Lakes and it would include Chicago as well. Much of the country
will receive above average precip, but areas such as the Upper
Midwest, such areas as South Dakota, North Dakota, Northern Iowa on
northward will see about average precipitation while areas such as
extreme northern North Dakota sees below average precipitation  and
the southern outskirts of the Desert Southwest and Florida see above
average precipitation.

And now to the Ice Storm threat for the Winter 2009-2010. Combined
with below average temperatures over much of the Southeastern States
and Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, and warm moist air streaming north
from the Gulf of Mexico. Several Overrunning events will be likely and
SIGNIFICANT and possible DAMAGING Ice Storms will be likely over the
highlighted area above from Texas through near Boston. The recent
pattern this October has been exhibiting overrunning precipitation
events and when combined with below average temperatures, this will
make for a very dangerous situation. I would stock up on ice scrapers,
salt and sand, non perishable foods and a generator as i see many
locals in the area above experiencing some major ice storms this
winter and possibly being stuck without power for many days.

As I explained by the storm track setting up over the Desert Southwest
and shooting northeastward through the Central and Northern Plains
then northeast through the lower Great Lakes. The second storm track
would go straight east exiting off the coast of the East Coast. The
areas that will most likely experience above average snowfall will be
over portions of the Desert Southwest northeastward through Colorado,
Northern Texas, Oklahoma I-80 South in Nebraska and Iowa and
encompassing much of the Ohio Valley and even portions of the deep
south. This pattern would also continue through the lower Great Lake
states and the Western Portions of the Great Lake states and
northwestern New England. Snowfall in this area could be quite
significant with all the below average temperatures and even could be
quite significant as far south as Dallas, Atlanta, Louisville, Little
Rock. Areas too small to include in the map for above average snowfall
will be above average snowfall in the Mountains of California. Average
snowfall will exist over much of the Western United States and
portions of the deep south, Upper Midwest and the East Coast. Portions
of the Mid Atlantic may see a couple Nor Easters bring some
significant snow but overall the storm pattern should remain to the
south, west and northwest of that region. Below average snowfall will
exist over the far Upper Midwest where the influence of Brutal Cold
temperatures will shunt the storm track further south.

SNOW-DAY 2009-2010 PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK

 

Hello Snow Day viewers, the Moment you have been waiting for, Snow Day's Preliminary 2009-2010 Winter Outlook. This only the 1st of 3 revisions of the Winter Outlook too be released. This first one is too highlight what i have researched the past few months, including Analogs, Sun Spot Activity, Summer Pattern and many more factors. The 1st Guess will be released Octobober 15th, allowing me more time to analyse more information then the Final Winter Outlook comes out November 1st. Normally the pattern that sets up in October through November is the pattern that will stick through the winter and that these months, along with September are the deciding factor. I wont be getting too much in depth with this first Winter Forecast, mostly the maps will be just posted.

 

(PLEASE NOTE THIS FORECASTIS SUBJECTED TO CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE NEXT OUTOOK ISSUENCE OCTOBER 15TH, 2009)

 

2009-2010 WINTER PRECIPITATION

 



 

Following the main storm track, Above Average precipitation will be likely across areas of the Desert Southwest excluding far southern regions northeastward through portions of the Central and Southern Plains, from portionsof Nebraska and Iowa on Southward. Areas of the South Dakota and North Dakota will see less snow then the previous winters due to the storm track being more southerly, but, due to potential clippers, it shouldnt be way below average, thus, included portions of the Upper Midwest and Northwestern United States in the E.C.(Equal Chances) for precipitation including both potential for Above and Below Average precipitation. The Above average precipitation follows through portions of the southeast with the exception of portions ofTexas and Arkansas, Louisianna and Alabama due to the possibility of the storm track being both north and south of these regions, but still will see normal precipitation. The East Coast has the potential too see Above Average precipitation with increased potential for a few nor easters, though some of these may slide too far east to affect the east coast with a punch as they would further hugging to the coast, so we'll have too see, most of the Mid Atlantic and portions of the Northeast will see Above Average precipitation with the increased potential for ice Storms as well. Equal Chances for both Above and Below average precipitation exist for portions of New England Region with Below average precipitation for the Upper Great lakes with most storms tracking south of this region. Areas in the Above Normal precitation band and most likely the Southeast states the East Coast has the potential to receive a couple MAJOR Ice storms, both these regions have the potential to receive crippling Snow Storms as well.

 

2009-2010 TEMPERATURE FORECAST

 



 

Above is the Temperature Forecast fot the 2009-2010 Winter Season. Areas over the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes on Southeast through the Ohio Valley, have the great potential for MUCH below average temperatures with increased Arctic Outbreaks. Areas from the Pacific Northwest southeast through portions of the Desert southwest through the Southeast states and encompassing much of the East Coast will see Below Average temperatures with areas of  Extreme Eastern areas of the East Coast and Florida to see Slightly below average temperatures. Areas of the Western United States in the tan color above will see Normal temperatures. The Main predominate storm tracks are also forecasted above with the Storm systems developing over Northwestern California then sweeping southeast then East through Souther Kansas then northeast through the Mid Atlantic States and up the east coast. This 1st storm track has the potential to sway either south or north 50 miles. The other main storm track is forecasted for low pressure systems to developing and ride the east coast developing possibly a couple Nor Easters and coastal lows. The other track that was not mentioned in the map is potential Clipper like systems developing in the Pacific Northwest and heading through areas of Nebraska and South Dakota on Eastward.

 

SUMMARY IN BULLET POINTS -

 

Less Snow over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes then last winter
Increased moisture from portions of the Western and Southwestern United states over too portions of the Central Plains and Eastern United States
Drier then average precipitation over the Upper Great lakes
Increased Nor' Easter Risk over the East Coast
Increased Ice Storm and Blizzard Risk from nebraska to Iowa on Southward, Ice Storm Risk especially active over the Southeastern United States
Bitter Cold over much of the Eastern 2/3rds of the Country

 

WHAT TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT TWO MONTHS

 

Usually the pattern that sets up in October and Early November is the pattern that will establish itself through the winter
Look for where the warmest and the coldest areas set up these next two months. That will be the deciding factor
Sun Spot Active plays a roll in making the Winter Forecast, currently it has been spotless for 4 days
Arctic Sea Ice plays another major roll, pay attention on how much sea ice has been building up





---

Forecast Coming Soon
Forecast: Forecast Coming Soon


---

Forecast Coming Soon
Forecast: Forecast Coming Soon


---